Bayes Analysis of Fatigue Strength Distribution Parameters
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摘要: 以贝叶斯估计为分析基础,用Monte Carlo方法产生大样本来计算机模拟升降法,由疲劳强度分布参数的估计值推导出了参数本身的后验分布.通过参数的后验分布,可以对参数进行区间估计和置信分析.该法解决了由于实验费用昂贵而一般只对长寿命区疲劳强度分布参数进行点估计的问题,为疲劳强度分布参数的进一步研究打下了基础.通过一个算例验证了方法的可行性,并且由计算结果分析比较了升降法的3种数据处理方法.Abstract: Based on Bayes estimation and Monte Carlo simulation method, a new method of getting distribution of fatigue strength parameters including average and dispersion is presented. With the scanty life date obtained by up and down experimental method, the interval estimation and confidence analysis of the parameters can be carried out, which makes the further study possible. A calculation example is also presented to validate the feasibility of this new method. Through comparison the results, the advantages and disadvantages of the three treatment methods of life date gained by up and down method can be easily seen.
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Key words:
- Bayes estimations /
- fatigue strength /
- parameters' distribution /
- up and down method
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