我国先进战机出厂费用的预估方法

刘航; 许溟; 武哲; 闫伟天

我国先进战机出厂费用的预估方法

1.
北京航空航天大学, 航空科学与工程学院, 北京 100191
2. 海军装备部, 北京 100841
3. 北京航空航天大学, 航空科学与工程学院, 北京 100191

详细信息

中图分类号: V221
计量
- 文章访问数: 2613
- HTML全文浏览量: 146
- PDF下载量: 559
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2011-12-31
- 网络出版日期: 2012-06-30

Estimation method of domestic advanced fighter-s fly-away cost

1.
School of Aeronautic Science and Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China
2. Naval Equipment Department, Beijing 100841, China
3. School of Aeronautic Science and Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China

摘要

摘要: 由于年代上的差别、技术水平的提高和国内外研发体制的不同,国外已有的成熟估算模型不能直接用于国内先进战斗机(三代以上的战斗机)的出厂费用估算.针对这种问题,研究了国内外军工体制的差异、先进战斗机的新技术特征和研制过程的新特点对费用产生的影响,将研制体制、引进仿制、航电技术升级、改进改型和研制周期拖延5种因素考虑到费用计算当中.根据战斗机出厂费用数据统计,以Burns估算模型为基础,引入了相关的"费用因子",采用比例缩放、最小误差等方法,建立了一种国内先进战斗机出厂费用估算的新模型.以国外先进战斗机和国内三型战斗机作为算例,验证了新模型的有效性和实用性.
- 战斗机 /
- 出厂费用 /
- 模型 /
- 费用因子
Abstract: Because of the generation difference, the improvement in technology and the discrepancy of research and development (R&D) system, the foreign estimation models, which have been extensively used until now, cannot be applied to calculate the domestic advanced fighter-s fly-away cost. To solve this problem, the differences between domestic and foreign military industry system, the technical features of advanced fighters, and the new features in R&D process were studied. In the process of cost calculation, 5 new factors were taken into account, including R&D system, import and imitation of foreign fighters, technical improvement of avionics, modification and upgrade of previous fighters, discontinuity and delay of R&D process. Based on the cost statistics and Burns model, those cost coefficients related to the above-mentioned factors were introduced into the calculation and a new model suitable for estimating the fly-away cost of advanced domestic fighters was constructed by means of scale and the least error. Some cases such as the foreign advanced fighters and domestic type-3 fighters were performed using this model, and the simulation results show the new model-s validity and practicality.
- fighter /
- fly-away cost /
- model /
- cost coefficient

HTML全文

参考文献(16)

[1]	Curran R.Review of aerospace engineering cost modeling:the genetic causal approach[J].Progress in Aerospace Sciences Journal,2004,40(8):487-534
[2]	Roskam J.Airplane design partⅧ:airplane cost estimation:design,development,manufacturing and operating[M].Kansas,USA:Roskam Aviation and Engineering Corporation,2002:21-66
[3]	Burns J W.Aircraft cost estimation methodology and value of a pound derivation for preliminary design development applications //53rd Annual Conference of Society of Allied Weight Engineers.Long Beach,CA:Society of Allied Weight Engineers Inc,1994:23-25
[4]	Raymer D P.Aircraft design:a conceptual approach[M].4th ed.Washington DC:American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc,2006:561-578
[5]	Curran R,Raghunathan S,Price M,et al.Aerospace product cost management at the early concept operations phase.AIAA 2008-8904,2008
[6]	Kundu A K,MAIAA Si,Curran R,et al.Rapid cost modeling at the conceptual stage of aircraft design.AIAA 2002-5853,2002
[7]	Curran R,Raghunathan S,Price M,et al.A methodology for integrated cost engineered systems within aerospace.AIAA 2004-6207,2004
[8]	Evans D K,Marsh R,Lanham J D.Using formal design techniques to select cost estimation methods for cost modeling.AIAA 2007-7797,2007
[9]	Li Shouan,Song Bifeng.Method for multivariate analysis with small sample in aircraft cost estimation[J].Journal of Aircraft,2007,44(3):1042-1045
[10]	严盛文,钟忠,郭基联.军用飞机改进改型研制费用的参数估算法[J].火力与指挥控制,2010,35(1):146-149 Yan Shengwen,Zhong Zhong,Guo Jilian.Parametric estimate algorithm of R&D cost of military modified aircrafts[J].Fire Control & Command Control,2010,35(1):146-149(in Chinese)
[11]	李寿安,张恒喜,宋笔锋,等.军用飞机采购价格预测研究[J].火力与指挥控制,2007,32(1):81-87 Li Shouan,Zhang Hengxi,Song Bifeng,et al.Research into warplane procurement price prediction[J].Fire Control & Command Control,2007,32(1):81-87(in Chinese)
[12]	Forecast International Inc.Radar systems forecast-DMS market intelligence report[M].New Town:Forecast International Inc,2011
[13]	Edward Downs.Jane-s avionics 2010-2011[M].29th ed.Surrey:Janeds Information Group,2010
[14]	刘航,闫伟天,武哲.现代战斗机出厂费用预估模型[J].航空计算技术,2011,41(3):62-65 Liu Hang,Yan Weitian,Wu Zhe.A prediction model for modern fighter-s fly-away cost[J].Aeronautical Computing Technique,2011,41(3):62-65(in Chinese)
[15]	Sticker Shock.Estimating the real cost of modern fighter aircraft.:Defense-aerospace,2006(2006-07-12).http:// www.defense-aerospace.com/dae/articles/communiques/Fighterlost-Final July06.pdf
[16]	Paul Jackson.Janeds all the world-s aircraft 2010-2011[M].101st ed.Surrey:Jane-s Information Group Limited,2010