Theoretical research of decision-making point in air combat based on hidden Markov model
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摘要:
从几何空战理论经过能量空战理论，直到角度空战理论，空战理论的发展更多的是从战斗机性能的角度来分析空战过程，忽略了作战飞行员在决策过程中起到的作用。本文分析空战飞机的客观数据的变化特征，提出了一种基于隐马尔可夫的近距空战流程分析方法，使用维特比算法判断飞行员在空战过程中的状态序列，从而获得了理论上的空战决策点。在理论分析上，提出了一种空战决策点理论用以评判飞行员飞行品质。通过实验仿真验证了使用隐马尔可夫模型讨论近距空战的可行性，并且发现飞行员空战决策点包络处于包围趋势时，飞行员获胜的可能性越大。
Abstract:From geometric air combat to energy air combat, till angle air combat theory, the process of air combat is analyzed more from the fighter performance point of view, the effect of the operational pilot in decision-making is neglected. This paper analyzes the variation characteristics of observation data in air combat, and an analysis method for close-range air combat process based on hidden Markov model is proposed. Viterbi algorithm is used to judge the pilot state sequence in air combat, and then the decision-making point is acquired in theory. Through theoretical analysis, the decision-making point in air combat is proposed to judge the pilot's flight quality. Through simulation, the feasibility of discussion of close-range air combat based on Markov model is verified, and when the pilot's decision-making point is in the tendency of surrounding, the pilot has a higher probability of winning.
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图 11 空战实例决策点的能量-AGC序列
Figure 11. Energy-AGC sequence for decision-making of two sides in air combat
表 1 近距空战双方占位角度关系
Table 1. Relative angular position of two sides in close-range air combat
编号 攻击机位置 目标机位置 ATA/(°) AOT/(°) AGC 1 
0 0 1.00 2 
0 45 0.75 3 
0 90 0.75 4 
0 180 0.50 5 
45 135 0 6 
90 90 0 7 
90 180 -0.50 8 
135 180 -0.75 9 
180 180 -1.00 
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表 2 飞行员决策点
Table 2. Decision-making point of pilot
编号 目标机状态 1 观察点 2 观察点 3 观察点 4 观察点 5 观察点 6 观察点 7 判断点 8 判断点 9 判断点 10 决策点 11 行动点 12 观察点 13 观察点 14 观察点 15 观察点 16 观察点 17 观察点 18 观察点 19 观察点 20 观察点 21 观察点 22 观察点 23 观察点 24 观察点
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表 3 红方决策点集合
Table 3. Decision-making set of red sides
编号 文献[11]给出的决策点时刻 使用隐马尔可夫模型得到的决策点时刻 对应的判断点时刻 判断过程所用的时间 1 K+18 K+19 K+18 1 2 K+25 K+25 K+24 1 3 K+30 K+30 K+29 1 4 K+34 K+36 K+34 2 5 K+49 K+48 K+47 1 6 K+51 K+52 K+51 1 7 K+57 K+57 K+57 0 8 K+64 K+65 K+64 1 9 K+71 K+71 K+70 1 10 K+75 K+73 K+72 1 11 K+92 K+92 K+91 1 12 K+99 K+98 K+98 0
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