Risk modeling and entropy decision on large complex project
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摘要: 对复杂系统规模庞大、结构复杂、风险众多从而难以进行决策的问题,提出了分级建模、风险过滤、风险评价和熵决策的复杂项目风险决策思路.应用分级全息建模技术辨识系统风险,开发了一个卫星系统研制项目的风险识别模型,克服了单一模型描述风险源的局限性;通过风险过滤、评级和管理技术对已经识别的风险进行定性和定量的度量,对风险进行分级,确定了关键风险;利用熵决策模型对关键风险进行评估和优选,得到最优决策方案.在此基础上开发了一个卫星系统研制项目方案选优决策的案例对该过程进行了分析,为大型复杂项目风险决策、重大工程项目方案择优决策提供了一条新的思路.Abstract: To solve problems as large scale, complex structure, numerous risks and difficult to make decision of large complex project, the risk decision method was proposed, based on hierarchical modeling, risk filtration, risk ranking and entropy decision. The hierarchical holographic modeling technique was applied to identify system risk. The risk identification model of satellite system development was developed, which overcame the limitation of sole model describing risk sources. The risk filtration, ranking and management technique was used to measure the identified risk factors through qualitative assessment and quantitative analysis. All the risks were ranked and the essential risks were determined. The entropy decision model was finally applied to evaluate the key risks. The optimal program was determined. A case of satellite development program decision was developed by using this method, which provided a new method for the large complex project risk decision making.
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Key words:
- risk analysis /
- model building /
- decision making /
- entropy
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