• 论文 •

尾流飞行风险概率拓扑图的构建方法

1. 1. 空军工程大学 航空航天工程学院, 西安 710038;
2. 中航工业陕西飞机工业集团有限公司 飞行试验中心, 汉中 723000
• 收稿日期:2013-09-23 出版日期:2014-08-20 发布日期:2014-08-27
• 作者简介:薛源（1986-），男，山东菏泽人，博士生，szxy1986@163.com.
• 基金资助:

国家自然科学基金与民航联合基金资助项目（U1333131）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（61374145）

Topological space construction of flight risk probabilities during wake encountering

Xue Yuan1, Xu Haojun1, Li Qiang1, Hou Shifang2, Liu Shijie1

1. 1. Aeronautics and Astronautics Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an 710038, China;
2. Flight Test Center, AVIC Shanxi Aircraft Industry (Group) Corporation, Hanzhong 723000, China
• Received:2013-09-23 Online:2014-08-20 Published:2014-08-27

Abstract: Under the background of increasing wake vortex problems, wake risk probability topology was built using complex human-machine-environment theory and multivariate extreme value theory. First, three-dimensional wake extreme parameters required for assessing the risk were extracted based on Monte Carlo method. And the one-dimensional extreme parameters were verified to meet generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Second, the four parameters and adaptive variable weight (FPAVW) Copula was proposed for modeling three-dimensional extreme parameters. The results of fitting test show FPAVW Copula model has higher accuracy than the other models. Third, flight risk probability in each corresponding grid node was evaluated on the basis of using Copula model to describe all the extreme values in three-dimensional wake space. Then the risk's 2D and 3D topological structures at different stages of wake vortex were analyzed. The work is an effective complement to aircraft system safety assessment theory and method, which provides reference for research directions such as wake navigation control, risk aversion, airport safety interval improvement, and environmental risks visualization. It is also suitable for comparative analysis of flight risk probabilities under different circumstances.