Monte Carlo method for system reliability evaluation using reliability confidence distribution
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摘要: 大型系统、复杂系统的可靠度的求解问题是可靠性工程中一个热点和难点的问题,针对这个问题,提出了一种基于蒙特卡罗模拟仿真的系统可靠度求解方法.通过利用系统的各个单元产品的可靠度置信分布和系统可靠度函数进行蒙特卡罗仿真,评估出系统可靠度.本方法克服了以往的蒙特卡罗仿真方法处理离散分布时抽取时间样本的困难,并且对系统的结构和复杂程度没有要求.最后,给出计算实例对比说明了该方法的正确性和可用性.Abstract: A Monte Carlo method was presented to ravel out the system reliability estimation problem of large and complex system′s reliability, which is a hot and difficult spot in the reliability engineering field. The reliability samples of system′s units from their reliability confidence distribution and system′s reliability estimation equation were combined in the method to simulate system running and get the system′s reliability. The difficult problem that no solution to get time samples from the discontinuous distributions is resolved by this method. Further more, the method has little limitation to the system′s structureand complexity that will expand its utilization. An instance was given to illustrate the method′s accuracy and availability in the estimation in a complex and large system through comparison with other reliability estimation methods which were generally use in the reliability engineering field.
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Key words:
- Monte Carlo methods /
- reliability /
- evaluation
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